中国城镇居民生活用能和生活垃圾CO_2排放测算及影响因素研究

Calculation of CO_2 Emissions from Municipal Life Energy and Solid Waste Landfills and Research on Its Influencing Factors

利用IPCC1996经验公式测算了1980-2011年中国城镇居民使用生活能源和生活垃圾填埋分解过程中排放的CO2。人均CO2排放量和人均生活能源CO2排放量呈先下降再上升的趋势,生活垃圾产生的CO2呈先波动上升再趋于平稳的趋势。采用WLS方法分析了其影响因素。城镇居民恩格尔系数和城镇失业率与人均CO2排放量呈负相关关系,人均GDP、第三产业占GDP比例、城镇化水平和城镇居民行为习惯与人均CO2排放量呈正相关关系;城镇居民行为习惯对人均CO2排放量的变化影响最大。

The paper estimates the COz emission of urban life energy and solid waste landfills from 1980 to 2011 with IPCC empirical expressions. The per capita CO2 emissions decreased at first but increased from Z000 by 2% every year. The per capita CO2 emissions of life energy decreased at first for optimizing the structure but increased because the consumption of electricity and natural gas rise. The per capita CO2 emissions of solid waste landfills increased at first and were smooth from 1995. What＇s more, this paper analyses the influencing factors by using WLS. The results show that： The elasticity coefficients of engel＇s coefficient and unemployment rate are negative. And the elasticity coefficients of per capita GDP, proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, level of urbanization and habit of residents are positive. The most important factor is the habit of residents.