综合货运网络规模及货物周转量算法研究

Research on algorithm of determining scale of intermodal freight network and cargo turnover volume proportions

通过30年来全国范围综合货运网络基础数据的分析,采用数理统计的方法,得出了三大产业生产总值和5种运输方式所承担货物周转量的相关关系函数,并以此确定了综合货运网络各种运输方式的里程规模.结合当前常规数据结构,建立不同运输方式所承担货物周转量合理比例的多目标货物周转量比例计算模型(CCTV Model),并基于运输效率、运输效益、对经济增长的贡献分别确定了合理货物周转量构成比例.结果表明,模型利用国内的常规数据结构能够较好的预测综合货运周转量比例,并应用于未来综合货运结构的预测和分析,不同目标值决定了不同的运输方式货物周转量构成比例.

The basic data of national intermodal freight network in recent thirty years are analyzed,and mathematical statistics is applied to these data.The functions of correlativity among gross products of the three industries and turnover volume of cargo transported by five transportation modes respectively are plotted.These correlativity functions are used to determine the mileage scale of intermodal freight network.The mathematical model for the reasonable turnover volume proportion of cargo transported by various modes （CCTV Model） is formulated,which is based on three levels of objectives,the transportation efficiency,the transportation profit and the degree of contributions to economic growth.The results show that the model by using the conventional data of domestic structure can better predict comprehensive freight turnover ratio,and apply to the future comprehensive freight forecast and analysis of the structure.Different targets determine the different proportions of freight tumover ratio for different transportation modes.