CO_2倍增对黄淮海气候生产力影响的数值模拟

Simulation of impacts of doubled CO_2 on the climatic productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

将ＣＯ２倍增后ＧＣＭｓ的输出结果输入到ＡＲＩＤ ＣＲＯＰ模型，模拟了ＣＯ２倍增后黄淮海地区冬小麦及夏玉米的气候生产力变化情况．结果表明：ＣＯ２浓度倍增后，黄淮海地区冬小麦气候生产力南部升高，北部降低，总体平均下降８．７％左右；夏玉米气候生产力与目前状况相比则普遍表现为降低，平 均比目前下降３０％～４５％。研究结果还表明：ＣＯ２倍增后，降水减少是引起冬小麦气候生产力降低的 主要原因；而黄淮海地区温度升高，引起夏玉米生育期缩短，进而导致干物质减少，则是夏玉米气候生产力降低的主要原因。针对模拟结果，文章提出了相应的对策及措施．

Sensitive analysis with the numerical model 'ARID CROP' was made first, then the model was run under the current climate and the doubled CO2 climate scenery generated from the UKMO equilibrium GCM. The results showed that the mean value of winter wheat climatic productivity will reduce about 8.7%, and the general tendency of summer maize climatic productivity will decrease about 40%-45% under the doubled CO2 climate change scenery. The results of numerical analysis found that the decrease of rainfall is the main reason which results in the descent of winter wheat climatic productivity, and the increase of temperature is the main reason which reesults in the descent of summer maize climatic productivity.