中国区域碳排放绩效评估及减碳潜力研究

Research on Regional Carbon Emissions Performance Evaluation and Carbon Reduction Potential in China

文章以1995-2010年我国30个省级经济单元为研究对象,在全要素框架下测算并分析了我国各省份的CO2排放绩效、减碳潜力和减碳规模,并研究了CO2排放绩效变动的驱动因素。结论认为,我国各省区CO2排放绩效差异较大,CO2排放绩效较高的省份主要集中在东部沿海经济发达地区,CO2排放绩效较低的省份主要以中西部板块的落后省份为主。减碳潜力和减碳规模测算结果表明,完成2020年单位产值CO2排放比2005年下降40%-50%的行动目标,只有上海、北京、广东、海南、福建、黑龙江、湖南等少数省份能够完成该目标,山西、河北、内蒙、辽宁、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等省区是重点监控省份,中西部板块的落后地区是重点监控地区。CO2排放绩效影响因素的回归结果表明,加大政府环保力度、提高研发投入水平、优化产业结构和能源消费结构,对于CO2排放绩效提高将会起到积极作用;工业增加值所占比重、资本/劳动比上升和进出口贸易所占比重增加不利于CO2排放绩效的改善。

This paper studies 30 Chinese provincial economic units from 1995 to 2010. Under the concept of Total Factor, we analyze the emission performance of CO2, the carbon reduction potential and scale of each province. The results show that： The emission performance of COz significantly differs in different provinces. The main concentration of high performance is in the developed eastern coastal cities, and the provinces with poor performance are mainly in Midwest of China. The calculating result of reduction potential and scale shows that only few provinces, like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Heilongjiang, and Hunan, can accomplish the goal of reduce the emission of CO2 by 40% - 50% in 2020 compared with 2005. Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Monglia Liaoning, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang are special monitoring provinces. The regression of factors affecting the emission performance shows that enhancing environmental legal enforcement, increasing the investmen of R＆D and optimizing the structure of industry and consumption will play positive roles in improving the performance of CO2 emission. On the other hand, increasing the industrial added value proportion and capital/labor ratio and import and export trade proportion are three ways that against improving the performance of CO2 emission.