城市化:人口增长约束及其政策启示

Urbanization: Population Growth Constraint and Policy Implications

城市化过程与人口自然增长率的下降显著相关。我国正处于城市化加速推进的重要时期,人口增长速度的减缓既为我国的现代化建设创造了有利条件,也带来了一系列需要考虑和解决的问题。本文基于我国城市人口的生育率明显低于农村人口,而城市人口占总人口的比重迅速上升这一事实做出四个推论,对我国人口数量及城乡结构变化的可能情景进行了分析。约束我国人口增长的因素可简化为生育政策效应和城市化效应二部分,前者可视为外部约束,后者可视为内部约束(即家庭主动节育)。参照城市化过程、人口增长变化与我国具有共同趋势的17个新兴工业化国家和发展中国家的情况,用类比方法估算出1972-2012年期间我国约束人口增长的城市化效应和计划生育政策效应。结果表明,前者使人口自然增长率由24.57‰下降到10.0‰-12.0‰,后者则进一步使增长率下降到4.87‰,并减少出生人口3.44亿-4.14亿人。可分三个阶段来分析内、外部因素的影响效果,政策效应时期(1972-1980),政策效应为主、城市化效应为辅时期(1980-1995),政策效应与城市化效应并重时期(1995-2012)。40年来政策效应由强变弱,城市化效应由弱变强。在新的发展阶段上,为减轻人口对资源环境的压力需要继续控制人口增长。另一方面,为避免人口老龄化带来的诸多问题,需要保持人口的适度增长。党的十八届三中全会对人口政策的重大调整非常及时和必要,但需要在坚持计划生育基本国策的同时,逐步减弱政策约束,增强内部约束,充分发挥城市化的效应。在各地区、各民族实行统一的生育政策,把约束人口增长的机制由政策强制变为家庭主动意愿,创造更加公平、合理和人性化的制度环境和平台,有序推进城市化过程。

There is a significantly correlation between urbanization process and the decline of natural population growth rate. China is in an important period of urbanization accelerating, the decline of population growth not only created favorable conditions for China＇s modernization, but also brought a series of issues need to be considered and resolved. Based on the fact that the fertility rate of urban population is significantly lower than that of the rural population, and the proportion of urban population accounting for total population rises rapidly in China, this article makes four inferences, and analyzes the possible scenarios that population number and structure changes in urban and rural areas. The factors that restrain China＇s population growth can be integrated into policy effect and urbanization effect two parts, the former can be considered as the external constraint, and the latter can be considered as the internal constraints （ i. e. , family active birth control）. Referring to the cases of 17 newly industrialized countries and developing countries that have same trend with China in the urbanization process and population growth, this paper estimates the policy effect and the urbanization effect restraining China＇s population growth during 1972 -2012 in China by analogy method. The results show that the former makes the natural population growth rate dropping from 24.57‰ to 10.0 %v - 12.0‰, the latter further the growth rate dropping to 4.87 ‰ and reduces accumulatively birth population 344 million - 414 million. The effect of internal and external factors can be divided into three stages to analyze, net policy effect period （1972 -1980）, the period of main policy effect and secondary urbanization effect（ 1980- 1995）, and the period that both are equally important（ 1995 -2012）. For 40 years, the policy effect has gone from strong to weak, in contrast, the urbanization effect from weak to strong. In new stage of development, it is necessary to continue to control population growth for relieving the population pressure on resources and environment. On the other hand, in order to avoid the many problems of population aging, it is necessary to maintain suitable population growth. Significant adjustments for population policy made in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee is very timely and necessary. But it is also necessary to adhere to the basic state policy on family planning, meanwhile, gradually weaken the policy constraints and strengthen the internal constraints, and give full play to the urbanization effect. The unified family planning policy should be conducted in all regions and all ethnic groups. The mechanisms restraining population growth should be changed from the policy enforcement to family willing. A more fair, reasonable and humanized institutional environment and platform should be created, and the urbanization process is pushed orderly.