天然气区域市场需求弹性差异性分析及价格规制影响研究

Research on the Difference Analysis of Natural Gas Regional Market Demand Elasticity and the Impact of Price Regulation

以大华北地区2000-2012年的天然气消费数据为样本,采用对数线性需求函数模型,分别估算了引入价格规制变量和不引入时的大华北地区需求弹性模型,并分析了价格规制对模型估算结果的影响。考虑到需求弹性的差异性问题,文章选取北京、山东、陕西和甘肃四个地区为研究对象,分别估算得到对应地区需求弹性模型,结合区域市场特点具体分析了产生差异的原因。为探究价格规制对天然气区域市场的影响,由大华北地区需求弹性模型分别估算了考虑价格规制影响和不考虑两种情形时该地区2009-2012年每年的天然气需求函数,同时对大华北地区在继续实行价格规制和放宽规制两种情形下未来的天然气需求进行了预测分析。研究表明:大华北地区天然气需求价格弹性为负、需求曲线向下,缺乏价格弹性,富于GDP弹性,GDP的持续增长是拉动天然气需求的最大动力;不同天然气区域市场,需求价格弹性、GDP弹性、价格规制弹性都存在很大的地区差异性,通常地区经济水平高、用户价格承受力强时,区域市场需求价格弹性较小,GDP弹性较小,价格规制弹性也较小,反之亦然;考虑价格规制时的大华北地区天然气需求曲线较不考虑时陡峭需求价格弹性与GDP弹性均小于不考虑情形,价格规制降低了需求价格弹性,抑制了GDP弹性;价格规制政策拉高了天然气需求,大华北地区未来市场具有支付意愿的天然气需求小于价格规制政策拉高的市场需求,为扩大天然气价格市场化后的需求,地方政府可考虑对地区市场采取一定的价格补贴措施来拉动需求。

With the natural gas consumption data of 2000 -2012 year in Northern China, using the log-linear model and introducing price regulation policy into the model, we had estimated the demand elasticity model of Northern China, and estimated demand elasticity model discounting the price regulation policy at the same time. Taking into account the differences in natural gas demand elasticity, We selected Beijing, Shandong, Shanxi and Gansu four regions for the study, estimated the demand elasticity model of them respectively, and analyzed the causes of differences combining with the characteristics of regional market. To study the influence of price regulation on natural gas market, according to the demand elasticity model we estimated the Northern China＇ s natural gas demand function from 2009 to 2012 in the case that considers the impact of price regulation and does not, and predicting and analyzing the Northern China＇ s future demand for natural gas in the Case of continuing to imposeprice regulation and relaxing regulation. The research showed that the demand elasticity of Northern China is negative, and demand curve downward. It is lack of price elasticity, full of GDP elasticity. The continued growth of GDP is the greatest force driving demand for natural gas. There are big differences in demand price elasticity, GDP elasticity, the elasticity of price regulation for different regional market. Generally, when the regional economies level is high and the users＇price bearing capacity is strong, the regional market＇s demanol price elasticity, GDP elasticity and price regulation clasticity are all smaller, and rice versa. The natural gas demand curve of Northern China considering the price regulation is more steep than not considering, and the demand price elasticity and GDP elasticity are both less than the case without considering. The price regulation reduces the demand price elasticity, inhibit the elasticity of GDP. The price regulation policy pushed up the demand for natural gas, so in the future nature gas market of Northern China the demand for willingness to pay is less than the demand for price regulation pushed up. In order to expand natural gas demand after the price being market, the local governments could consider taking price subsidies measures to boost the regional markets＇ demand for nature gas.