人口结构变迁与财政社会保障支出水平研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Evolution of the Demographic Age Structure and Fiscal Social Security Expenditure level- Based on the Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data.

综合运用静态面板与动态面板模型考察中国1998—2012年人口结构变迁对财政社会保障支出水平的影响。固定效应、系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)方法实证分析结果均显示:老年人口抚养比对人均财政社会保障支出存在正的显著影响,即老龄化是导致财政社会保障支出压力的原因;而少年儿童抚养比与人均财政社会保障支出之间存在显著的负相关关系;此外,财政社会保障支出表现出较强的惯性。基于此,为缓解财政社会保障支出压力并有效应对人口老龄化,应提高财政支出配置效率和财政社会保障支出水平。

This paper using static panel and dynamic panel model analyses the effect of evolution of the demographic age structure to fiscal social security expenditure level of 1998-2012 fiscal years. The fixed effects model and the system GMM empirical results show that： Firstly, the elderly dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on per capita fiscal social security expenditure. Secondly, there is a significant negative correlation between child dependency ratio and per capita social securityexpenditure . Therefore, in order to reduce the pressure on fiscal social security expenditure and effectively deal with ageing, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of fiscal spending, further improve fiscal social security expenditure level.