服务进口与我国全要素生产率的增长——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Imports of Services and China's TFP Growth——An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

服务进口贸易对我国全要素生产率的增长有多大的促进作用事关我国经济增长方式的转变。实证研究结果表明,1985-2010年,服务进口贸易与我国全要素生产率的变化之间有显著的正相关关系,服务进口增长1%,全要素生产率就有0.12%的提升。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解分析结果,尽管国内R&D资本存量对全要素生产率的长期拉动效应更为显著,但服务进口的积极作用也不可忽视。

Growth of service trade on China＇s total factor productivity change much bearing on China＇s economic growth mode. The empirical results show that there exists a co-integration relationship between domestic capital stock of R＆D and China＇s TFP from 1985 to 2010, in which a 1% rise in service imports is accompanied by a 0.12 % rise in TFP. Based on VAR model, results from the analysis of impulse response function and variance decomposition also show that service imports have a significant positive impact on TFP in the long run, although the impact from domestic capital stock of R＆D is more remarkable.