财政收入缓增背景下政府投资扩张与结构优化调整研究

The Effect of Government Investment Expansion and Structure Adjustment on Economy: A CGE Analysis

2012年全国财政收入增幅回落,政府收入增长放缓。在此背景下,本文构建了一个中国CGE模型,考察了政府投资扩张与结构优化调整对经济的影响。研究发现:政府投资扩张在短期内能有效刺激经济,但长期效果较差,还会损害居民福利;相反,政府投资的结构性优化调整则能在长期内有效促进经济增长和改善居民福利;无论是投资扩张还是结构性优化调整,用于农林牧渔业、公共管理和社会组织、教育的投资均为最优,而房地产业和废品废料业的投资效果最差。因此,若只是简单地扩大政府公共投资水平,原有的结构性失衡问题将会更加严重,如何科学合理地调整投资规模,并进行结构优化才是关键。

Against the background of lower growth rate of national fiscal revenue in 2012, we construct a CGE model of China to investigate the effects of government investment expansion and structure adjustment on macro -economy and resident welfare.The results indicate that expansionary government investment has a positive effect on macro -economy in the short term, but the effects are rather bad in the long run , even impairing resident welfare .On the contrary , structure adjustment of the government investment has a long-term positive effect on economy and resident welfare;either with government investment expansion or structure adjustment , investment in agriculture , public management , social organization , and education produces the best result while investment in real estate , scrap and waste industry generates the lowest return .Therefore , the original structural imbalance will be more serious if we simply expand the public investment .The key to the problem is scientific and rational adjustment of the scale of investment and optimization of the investment structure .