贷款损失准备计提、管理动机与商业银行顺周期性——基于中国上市银行的实证研究

Commercial Bank Loan Loss Provision,Management Motivation and Pro-cyclical Behavior

按照管理动机将贷款损失准备计提行为区分为非相机决策与相机决策两种类型,选取2003-2012年中国上市银行数据,采用动态面板数据模型实证分析贷款损失准备计提对银行信贷的影响。结果表明,商业银行贷款损失准备计提存在显著的顺周期性特征,其中非相机决策型计提的影响处于主导地位,收入平滑动机与信号显示动机对商业银行顺周期性的缓释作用有限,应基于预期损失模型建立逆周期性贷款损失准备制度。

In this paper , loan loss provisions are divided into two types according to different management motivations ：the discretionary component and nondiscretionary component .Based on data of China＇s listed banks in 2003-2012, we find a significant pro-cyclical behavior in the commercial bank loan provisions , as the nondiscretionary component is in a dominant position while the mitigation effect of income smoothing motivation and signal motivation on commercial banks ＆#39;pro-cyclical is limited.So a counter-cyclical mechanism of loan loss provisions should be established on the basis of the expected loss model .