中国进口石油地理集中度问题研究

Geographic Concentration Rates of China's Oil Imports

运用1988-2012年中国进口原油和成品油的年度数据，通过计算赫芬达尔指数来考察中国进口石油地理集中度的演进趋势，得出中国进口石油地理集中度与石油安全以及与企业成本间关系的结论：一方面进口石油的国别结构趋于集中会降低石油安全；另一方面也会减少交易成本。进一步分析可知，进口石油的地理集中度既不宜过高也不宜过低，理论上存在一个最优的集中度水平。一国进口石油地理集中度与石油安全密切相关，高进口石油地理集中度伴随着高的石油安全风险；通过分散进口石油地理集中度有利于保障石油安全，却增加了成本。

Based on the annual data of crude oil import and refined oil import of China from 1988 to 2012, a study is conducted in this paper to analyze the evolution of the geographic concentration rates of China＇s oil imports according to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. It is difficult to resist the conclusion that this concentration rates is related to oil security and business cost. The concentration of import and export market structure not only results in less safety of oil, but also leads to the reduction of business cost. Further analysis shows that the geographic concentration rates of oil imports is not apt to be too high or too low. In theory, there is an optimal concentration rate. A country＇s oil imports is closely related to the geographic concentration rates of oil security. High concentration rate is accompanied by the high risk of oil security. Decentralization will be beneficial to the oil security, but it will increase cost.