贸易公平还是贸易保护:对多国遭受反倾销次数的回归分析

Trade Fairness or Trade Protectionism:Determinants of Anti-dumping Filings Received across Different Countries

通过对反倾销的主要对象国遭受反倾销的数量进行回归分析,本文发现:仅仅通过控制8个重要的"反倾销受害国特征",我们便能很精准地解释和预测各国每年遭受反倾销的数量;一个国家遭受反倾销的数量与其竞争实力的强弱存在着惊人的"巧合"。在贸易实践中,反倾销的根本目的往往是"反竞争"。虽然该制度的初衷是打击违规贸易行为、促进贸易发展,其结果却仅仅是惩罚了那些具有生产成本优势、经贸快速发展的国家,阻碍了全球范围内的技术和生产力进步。我们需要重新反思和设计与反倾销有关的制衡机制,让该制度真正成为保障贸易秩序、促进贸易公平和世界经济发展的正面力量。

This paper conducts a regression analysis to search for the determinants of antidumping filings received by different countries each year. It aims to evaluate the validity of current antidumping law＇s claim to fight against unfair trade practice. We discover eight significant features of antidumping target countries that can explain and predict the dependent variables quite accurately. And the causal effects of these features suggest that anti dumping practice, in reality, simply becomes a force against foreign competitiveness in production and economic development. The correspondence between antidumping risk and economic performance of the target country creates a trade system that encourages protectionism and discourages progress. We thus believe a reform of the law with balance of power mechanism is necessary to promote long term growth to the international society. The paper also analyzes factors that make China the top target of antidumping with our regression result.