中国贸易伪报下资本外逃规模研究——基于2001—2011年样本数据的测算

Study on the Scale of Capital Flight against the Background of False Trade Declaration in China——Estimation Based on Sample Data from 2001—2011

十多年来,中国的资本外逃问题日趋严重,已对国民经济发展与安全构成威胁。本文构建贸易伪报下资本外逃规模测算模型,选取2001—2011年的样本数据,对中国贸易伪报下资本外逃规模进行测算。其主要结论是:样本期内中国贸易伪报下资本外逃规模呈快速增加趋势;中国贸易伪报下资本外逃的最主要目的地是美国、日本、德国、加拿大、韩国和墨西哥等经济比较发达且与中国贸易往来比较密切的国家。为防范贸易伪报下的资本外逃,有关部门要了解国际市场价格及其变化趋势,完善对出口货物价值的审核机制;加强与贸易伙伴相关部门之间的沟通,建立信息对称的进口货物价格审核机制,有效防范出口低报和进口高报导致的资本外逃;更要积极推进与贸易伙伴之间的多层次合作,通过建立全球或区域性的协调与监管机制,共同应对贸易伪报下的资本外逃;从长远看应致力于完善法律法规体系,尊重和保护私人产权,创造良好投资环境,进而从根本上解决贸易伪报下资本外逃的问题。

Over the past decade, China has confronted deteriorating capital flight, a threat to the national economic development and security. This article aims at building the estimation model for the scale of capital flight against the background of false trade declaration based on the sample data from 2001--2011, and has arrived at the following conclusions ： during the sampling period, the capital flight with false trade declaration had shown a tendency of rapid growth; the major destinations of such capital flight include the United States, Japan, Germany, Canada, ROK and Mexico, countries that are relatively more developed and have closer trade ties with China. To prevent such capital flight, relevant authorities should understand the price and trends on the international market, improve the auditing mechanism for the value of exported commodities, strengthen communication with trading partners, and establish price auditing mechanism for imported goods based on information symmetry to effectively prevent capital flight resulting for undervalued export and overvalued import. In addition, relevant authori- ties should actively promote muhi-level cooperation with trading partners, and make joint efforts to combat capital flight through the establishment of global or regional coordination and monitoring mechanism. In the long run, we should be committed to improving the legal and regulatory system, respect and protect private property rights, and create a favorable investment environment, so that the issue of capital flight with false trade declaration can be solved fundamentally.