商用车产业发展非政策影响因素的相关性研究

Research on Correlation between the Development of the Commercial Vehicle Industry and the Non-policy-related Factors

以商用车销售量作为商用车产业的评价指标,建立线性回归模型,运用主成分分析法,通过定量分析,研究GDP、固定投资额、公路里程、城镇化率和石油消费量等因素与商用车销售量的关系。结果表明,以上各因素均与商用车销量有很强的正相关性,影响程度十分接近,这5个影响因素同时具有高度的相关性,并且相互影响。

The paper uses the sales of commercial vehicle as the evaluating indicator of commercial vehicle industry, establishes a linear regression model. By using the PCA, through quantitative analysis, the authors study the GDP and IFA, road mileage, urbaniza- tion rate and the oil consumption and the relationship between commercial vehicle sales. Results show that the above factors have a strong positive influence on commercial vehicle sales and the extent of influence is very close, there is a high degree of correlation a- mong these factors. The model can be used for prediction of commercial vehicle market demand .