美式全球化的终结与世界体系的未来

The Ending of Globalization in American Mode and the Future of World System

在既往500年资本主义现代世界体系的历史中,先后出现过伊比利亚·热那亚体系、荷兰体系、英国体系和美国体系。资本积累体系从崛起、扩张走向式微的历史过程,表现出体系兴衰的百年周期律。目前,美式体系已经进入其生命结构衰变和机能老化的退变期。2008年爆发的危机,就是一场美国体系的大危机,它将导致美式全球化体系的终结。随着美式体系的衰落,各国及各地区在经济、政治与安全事务中,更多地依赖自身和区域合作,而不是依赖全球合作,全球化将进入一个退潮期。未来的世界体系将不再是中心—边缘结构,而是网络式结构,由趋向合作的共同体组成联合体,形成更加公平、更多合作的全球化新体系。

In the past 500 years, in the history of the modern world system of capital- ism, there appeared in turn Iberia-Genoa system, Holland system, the British system, and the American system. The historical process of capital accumulation system from the rise, expansion, to decline, shows the centennial boom-bust cycle. At present, the American system has entered the decaying stage of life structure falling and the func- tional aging. The outbreak of 2008 crisis is the big depression of American system,leading to the end of the Americanized globalization system. With the decline of the American system, many countries and regions will be more dependent on their own and regional collaboration, rather than on global cooperation in the economic, political and security affairs. Globalization will be in the ebb period. The forth-coming world system will not be the center-edge architecture any more, but the network structure. The con- sortium will be established by the cooperation communities, forming the fairer, and more cooperative new globalization system.