新疆1995—2010年全要素能源效率实证分析——基于超效率DEA模型

Total-Factor Energy Efficiency of Xinjiang from 1995 to 2010:Empirical Analysis Based on Super-efficiency DEA Model

随着新疆经济的快速发展,能源短缺问题日益严峻和突出。从全要素能源效率的角度,以劳动力、资本存量和能源消费总量为投入端,实际GDP为产出端,利用超效率DEA模型测算了新疆1995—2010年间生产活动的DEA超效率值,并对其变化历程进行了分析。研究表明:1995—2010年间,新疆的全要素能源效率呈缓慢波动的态势,以1999年为分界点,前后年的能源效率均呈先降后升的"U型"变化,总体来说有逐渐上升的趋势,但不十分明显,而且呈周期性变化特点。因此,提高新疆能源利用效率依然任重而道远,需要通过积极的政策措施,走新型工业化之路,向集约型经济发展模式转变。

With the rapid economic development in Xinjiang, the issue of energy shortage has become increasingly serious. From the perspective of total factor energy efficiency, with labor force, capital stock and total energy consumption as the input index and the real GDP as the output index, this paper analyzes the efficiency of production activities in Xinjiang from 1995 to 2010 and the change process, based on the DEA model. The results show that from 1995 to 2010, the total factor energy efficiency was slowly fluctuating, with the year 1999 as a demarcation point, i. e. , a ＂U-shaped＂ change trend appeared before and after that year, with a gradual but unclear increase as a whole. It is concluded that economic growth of Xinjiang must be converted to the intensive mode of economic development by improving the efficiency of energy consumption.