西部地区石油消费与经济增长计量关系

Econometric Analysis of Petroleum Consumption and Economic Growth in West China

将石油消费量作为独立因素加入到C-D函数模型中,并将综合技术水平视为变量,利用协整分析、岭回归分析和格兰杰因果检验对西部地区1996-2011年的石油消费与经济增长计量关系做了实证分析。结果表明,在短期内经济增长与石油消费存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,此外,随着滞后期的增加,西部地区的经济增长能够促进石油的进一步消费。石油作为西部地区一种重要的能源要素,在短期内会继续支撑西部地区经济发展,因此,需要从提高石油利用率、建立石油消费预警机制、制定西部地区石油发展战略等方面实现石油消费与经济发展的双赢。

With petroleum consumption as an independent factor to join the C-D production function model and comprehensive technical level as a variable, an econometric analysis is done of the relationship between petroleum consumption and economic growth from 1996 to 2011 in West China by means of cointegration analysis, ridge regression analysis and Granger causality test. The results indicate that a two-way Granger causality exists between economic growth and petroleum consumption in a short period. Furthermore, with the increase of lag phase, economic growth may further promote the consumption of petroleum in this region. As an important element of energy in West China, Petroleum will continue to support the economic development in this region. Therefore, we can achieve a win-win between petroleum consumption and economic development by increasing the utilization of petroleum, establishing an early warning mechanism about petroleum consumption, and formulating the western petroleum development strategy and so on.