我国农村居民消费影响因素的主成分回归分析

The Principal Components Regression Analysis of Consumption among the Chinese Rural Residents

利用我国农村居民消费有关数据,首先用主成分方法进行降维,并且同时消除解释变量之间的多重共线性,然后对农村居民人均消费支出与农村居民人均纯收入、人均储蓄存款、人均GDP和消费价格指数这四个影响因素进行主成分回归分析.实证分析结果表明,四个影响因素均对农村居民消费需求有显著影响,对模型进一步分析得出,近几年来我国消费迅速上升背后最大推动力竟然是物价的持续上涨,而不是居民消费动力有很大提高,最后对实证结果给予合理的经济解释.

The relevant data concerning rural residents consumption was treated by use of the principal components method for dimensionality reduction, and meanwhile the multicollinearity between the explanatory variables was diminished; then the four influencing factors（the rural residents per capita consumption expenditure, the rural residents per capita net in- come, the per capita savings deposit, the per capita GDP and the consumption price index） were subjected to a principal com- ponents regression analysis. The empirical analysis shows that the four factors exert a significant effect upon the rural residents consumption needst and a further analysis of the model finds that in recent years the maximal impetus behind the rapid growth of consumption comes from the constant rise of the commodity price rather than the increased consumer motivation. In the end, the empirical results were given a reasonable economic explanation.