基于M-F模型的美国经济冲击传导研究

Research on the Conduction of the U.S.Economic Shocks Based on M-F Model

以IS-LM模型和蒙代尔-弗莱明模型(M-F模型)为主要分析工具,采用比较静态均衡分析方法研究了美国经济冲击对东亚经济的传导。研究表明,美国经济冲击会通过影响利率、汇率、净出口、投资等因素对东亚经济体产生传导作用。具体来说,美国正向供给冲击会引起美元实际汇率贬值,进而引起东亚产出减少;美国扩张性需求冲击与扩张性货币冲击对东亚经济的影响截然不同,多数情况下对经济变量的影响呈反向变动关系;FDI渠道的传导对美国三大经济冲击的影响都会产生一定的抑制作用。

Using IS-LM model and Mundell - Fleming Model （ MF model） as the main analytical tool, the paper adopts comparative static equilibrium analysis method to study the transmission of the US economy shocks to East Asia economi- es. Research shows that the US economy will impact on the East Asia economies by influencing interest rates, foreign ex- change rates, net exports, investment and other economic variables. Specifically, the US positive supply shocks cause the real exchange rate depreciation, thereby causing reduced output in East Asia; US expansionary demand shocks and expan- sionary monetary impact on the East Asia economies differently, in most cases the impact of the economic variables were reverse movements relations; FDI channel conduction on the three major US economic shocks will produce a certain inhibi- tion.