基于灰色系统理论的大连城市建设用地需求预测

Urban construction land scale forecast based on gray system theory of Dalian

建设用地既是城市发展的基础,也是区域实现城市化的基本物质保障,而城市建设用地需求量的预测则是城市土地利用的重要依据.基于灰色系统模型对城市建设用地驱动因子进行关联分析,建立GM(1,1)模型和灰色线性回归模型对大连市各个类型建设用地规模及城市建设用地总规模做出预测.认为大连市建设用地规模的变动受到人口、经济和社会等各个方面因素影响,非农人口数量的增加是影响大连城市建设用地增长的最主要因素.预测结果显示,2012—2020年大连市各个类型的建设用地呈现平稳增长趋势,城市建设用地总规模呈现较大幅度变动,但其增长的范围仍在土地利用规划控制目标范围以内.

Construction land is not only the foundation of urban development ,but also the basic mate-rial security for area to achieve urbanization .Urban construction land scale forecast is an important basis for land use .The gray system model is used to analyse the correlation of urban construction land driving factors .By setting up GM （1 ,1） model and gray linear regression model ,for various types of construction land ,the predictions of urban construction land scale and total scale are made in Dalian . It is believed that many factors can cause changes in the scale construction land in Dalian ,such as population ,economic and social factors ,and the increase of non-agricultural population is the main in-fluence factors of Dalian urban construction land growth .The forecast results showed that in 2012-2020 various types of construction land in Dalian will show a trend of steady growth .Total scale of land used for urban construction in Dalian will have a big change ,but the scope of its grow th will be still in control .