“中国之谜”存在性的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Existence of“Chinese Riddle”

分别从超长期、长期、短期出发,运用相关性分析、VAR模型以及回归分析,验证了"中国之谜"的存在性。研究发现,超长期时,货币供应量与物价存在稳定的正相关关系,"中国之谜"现象是不存在的。长期时,中国存在"超额"的货币供给,但"超额"的货币供给对物价变动的影响有限。而在短期季度数据分析得出它们两者存在着非常规关系,"中国之谜"现象确实存在。但时间跨度越大,"中国之谜"现象变得不明显。

The correlation analysis, VAR models and regression analysis were used to prove whether or not there is a ＂Chinese riddle＂ phenomenon from the ultra-long-term, long-term and short-term. Results show that money supply is a positive correlative with price changes at the ultra-long-term but a negative correla- tion at short-term and the excess money supply has a slight effect on price changes at long-term. Indicating that with the increasing span of time, ＂Chinese riddle＂ phenomenon is not obvious.