1636—1949年广西北部湾地区旱涝灾害时空演变研究

Drought and Flood Disasters in the Beibu Gulf Region of Guangxi:Temporal and Spatial Evolution during 1636 and 1949

通过搜集、整理历史资料,选取1636—1949年共314年,并结合SPSS、EXCEL软件数据分析与ArcGIS图像处理功能,对广西北部湾地区旱涝灾害的等级序列、时间特征、空间特征以及成因进行研究。结果表明:1)1636—1949年间广西北部湾地区共发生大小洪涝灾害456次,平均每0.69年发生1次;干旱灾害400次,平均每0.79年发生1次。2)该地区洪涝灾害主要分布在该地区中部与北部,旱灾主要分布在该地区中部、西部、北部。3)根据旱涝灾害的等级序列可知,2级偏旱略多于1级旱;5级涝多于4级偏涝;灾害以涝灾为主。4)该地区旱涝灾害由地形地貌、人类活动、气候因子共同影响。

By interpreting and analyzing historical data, as well as the combination of data processing and image manipulating functions of SPSS, EXCEL and ArcGIS, the temporal and spatial features,grade series and formation cause of drought and flood disasters, during 1636 and 1949, in the Beibu Gulf Region of Guangxi are studied. The results shows that there were all together 456 flood disastersoccurred during the period, which means 0. 69 time per year or 1 time every 0. 79 year. In addition, flood disasters mainly occurred in the middle and northern parts of the study area, drought disastersmainly occurred in the middle, northern and western parts. According to the grade series, the frequency of drought disasters at the second grade is higher than at the first grade, the frequency of flood disasters at the fifth grade is higher than at the fourth grade. Within the area, flood is the primary disaster. Flood and drought disasters were caused by the combination of climatic, human and physical geographical factors.