气候变化下海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性对比

Variation of Climate Suitability of Banana Planting in Hainan Island Under Climate Change

为了对气候变化下海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性进行对比,研究统计分析了近30年(1981—2010)和过去30年(1971—2000)年海南岛18个气象观测站年平均气温、年极端最低气温、1月平均最低气温、≥10℃活动积温、年日照时数,以此为评价指标对近30年和过去30年海南岛香蕉种植气候适宜性进行了对比分析,得出了各要素及气候适宜性的空间变化图。结果表明:近30年海南全岛年平均气温平均升高0.3℃,年极端最低气温平均升高1.2℃,1月平均最低气温平均升高0.3℃,≥10℃活动积温平均增加108.2℃·d;全岛日照时数除中部地区有增加外其他地区均变现为降低,平均降低59.8 h;海南岛香蕉种植气候不适宜地区减少了6.2%,次适宜地区增加了10.2%,适宜区减少了约4%,尤以北部以及中部山地变化最为明显。研究结果可为香蕉的种植合理布局,香蕉产量和品质提高提供理论依据,为香蕉种植应对气候变化提供决策支持。

In order to understand the climate suitability of banana under the background of climate change in Hainan island, the 1981-2010 and 1971-2000 climatic observation data from 18 meteorological stations were analyzed, including annual mean temperature, annual lowest temperature, lowest mean temperature January, ≥10℃ active accumulated temperature and annual sunshine hours. Based on comparative analysis, the author drew the spatial changing maps of climate suitability. The results showed that annual mean temperature in Hainan island increased by 0.3℃ for the latest 30 years, annual lowest temperature increased by 1.2℃, lowest mean temperature in January increased by 0.3℃, ≥10℃ active accumulated temperature increased by 108.2℃· d, annual sunshine hours decreased averagely by 59.8 h except for an increasing in central area. The unsuitable planting regions for banana reduced by 6.2%, less suitable planting regions increased by 10.2%, and suitable planting regions reduced by 4%. The changes were especially obvious in northern and central mountainous part. The results could be taken as the theoretical foundation for rational distribution of banana planting to improve yield and quality, as well as providing decision support to adapt banana planting to climate change.