基于灰色优势分析的中国农业投入产出水平研究

The Quantitative Research of China's Agricultural Input-output Level Based on Grey Superior Analysis

农业投入产出水平可以从2个方面进行衡量,一是农业投入产出的规模水平;二是农业投入产出的效益水平。灰色优势分析能够在排除主观因素干扰的情况下,对农业投入产出水平评价指标进行赋权,提升了评价体系的可信度。农业产出指标和投入指标的关联序分别表征了各评价指标在衡量农业投入产出水平时的代表性强弱。经测算,1981—2010年,中国农业投入产出规模指数总体上不断升高,但1995年以前主要依靠产出拉动,此后主要依靠投入拉动;农业投入产出效益指数先正后负,且呈"S"形波动,意味着中国农业生产发展已先后摆脱"高效益、低水平"和"高水平、低效益"的非良性状态,开始呈现出"高效益、高水平"的良性发展势头。

Agricultural input-output level can be measured from 2 aspects, the first is the level of agricultural input-output scale; second is the level of agricultural input-output effectiveness. Grey superior analysis excluding subjective factors in the case of agricultural input-output evaluation indicators of empowerment, this method can enhance the credibility of the evaluation system. The associated sequence of evaluation reflects the strength of the representation of the evaluation of indicators to measure the level of agricultural input-outpnt level. After calculation, in the years 1981-2010, the scale index of Chinese agricultural input-output in general continues to rise, but mainly relies on output pull before 1995, after which mainly relies on invested pulling; the efficiency index of Chinese agricultural input-output is the first positive after negative and presented the ＇ S＇ shape fluctuations, this indicates that China＇ s development of agricultural production has to get rid of the ＇high-efficiency, low-level＇ and ＇high-level, low-benefit＇ non-benign state, and shows a ＂high- efficiency, high-level＂ healthy development momentum.