摘要
为了研究气候变化影响的玉米单产对中国粮食产量及社会经济部门的影响,使用可计算一般均衡模型,将考虑CO2肥效作用的气候变化影响的玉米单产变化作为政策模拟方案,通过构建的基期来模拟对中国玉米生产、消费的影响。模拟结果显示:(1)到2050年,在高排放的A2情景下,玉米的总产出为235813kt,总需求合计为270800 kt,在中低排放的B2情景下,玉米的总产出为242418 kt,总需求合计为238435 kt,在A2情景下供不应求,而在B2情景下,供给大于需求。(2)气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济产生有利影响,实际工资、实际GDP、投资、家庭消费、出口等宏观指标相比于基期都有所上升。从总体上来说,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致玉米供给增加和进口减少,增加的供给量大于需求。因此,考虑CO2肥效的作用,会增强供给的保障,有利于维护中国的粮食安全。
To study the effect of climate change influenced corn yield on the national grain production and Socio- economic sectors, the study used a computable general equilibrium model, took the corn yield that was affected by climate change considering the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide as policy simulation scheme and constructed the base to simulate climate change effects on China＇s maize production and consumption. The result showed： （1） To 2050, under the high emissions scenario （A2）, the total maize production would be 235813 kt, and the total consumption demand would be 270800 kt, while under the low emissions scenario （B2）, the total maize production would be 242418 kt, and the total consumption demand would be 238435 kt, the supply of maize exceeded its demand under the high emissions scenario （A2）, on the contrary, the supply slightly bigger than the demand under the B2 scenario. （2） The climate change would have a beneficial influence on China＇ s macro economy and sectors, compared with base period, real wages, real GDP, investment and household consumption, export and other macro indicators would all increase. On the whole, both under A2 and B2 scenarios, the results could be the growth of corn supply and reduction of corn import, the quantity of increased supply would be larger than that of demand. Therefore, considering the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide, climate change would strengthen the corn supply and have favorable implications for corn security.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2014年第17期236-244,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题"气候变化对中国粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究"(2010CB951504)
