一种基于灰色理论的目标飞行器跟踪趋势预测模型

Tracking Trend Forecast Model Based on Gray Theory for Object Aircraft

为了揭示目标飞行器的运动特性,将灰色模型应用于船载雷达跟踪目标飞行器趋势的预报。基于GM(1,1)灰色模型,对原始序列进行累加处理得到生成序列,通过灰色模型去描述生成序列,还原出原始序列,得到原始数据的预测模型,以此获得对目标飞行器未来趋势的预测,并以某次任务的雷达跟踪测量俯仰角数据为实例进行研究。实验结果表明:经过数据预处理后,所建模型具有一定的预测精度。

To discover the dynamic characteristic of object aircraft, it applies the gray model into forecast on the trend which shipboard radar track object aircraft. To the particularity of shipboard data, this paper pushes out one new data dispose method based on GM （1,1）. The method dispose the original data serial to a new serial by accumulated generating operation （AGO）, Then it adopt gray model to describe the new serial and restore it. A new model can be gotten which be tested by sampling larges of pitch angel data arising from radar trending in a task .The result proves that the model could satisfactorily forecast precision disposed beforehand by the method.