重庆地区降水序列的均一性检验及其对气候变化分析的影响

Penalized Maximal T-test for the Homogeneity Study of the Annual Precipitation Data in Chongqing

本文利用最新发布的RHtest软件包中的惩罚最大T检验(PMT)方法并结合各个台站的历史沿革信息对重庆地区所属的34个气象观测台站从建站到2010年的月降水序列进行了均一性检测,并用RHtest软件包中的惩罚最大F检验(PMFT)方法对其进行了验证,结果表明该方法能很好的应用于月降水序列的均一性检验,在被检测的34个台站中,仅3个台站被检测出了间断点,表明重庆大部分台站降水资料均一性情况良好,台站远距离迁移是引起月降水序列非均一性的主要原因。对检验出存在断点的降水序列采用最新发布的RHtest软件包提供的均值订正方法进行了订正,并对订正前后的降水序列进行气候趋势分析,分析发现,订正前后降水序列的年变化趋势具有明显的改变。

By the means of PMT of RHtest software package and combine the historical change information of each station, the homogeneity of monthly precipitation series of 34 meteorological observation stations in Chongqing area during the period from the building of the station to 2010 has been tested,and with PMFT of RHtest software package was carried out to verify. The results show this method is effective in monthly precipitation series homogeneity test. There are only 3 discontinuous points have been detected in 34 stations, which means the homogeneity of monthly precipitation data for most of the stations is good, the main reason that lead to the inhomogeneity of monthly precipitation series is station relocation long distances. Adjustment for the discontinuous precipitation series has been conducted by taking the approach provided by RHtest, and climatic trend a- nalysis has been exerted for the precipitation series with and without adjustment, the analysis reveals that yearly trend of month- ly precipitatation series with and without adjustment has obvious change.