中国人口种群百年生育图及“TFR=1或2”的抉择

Bearing picture of population in China and choice between the “TFR = 1 or 2”

世界上只有中国在实施十分严格的总和生育率(TFR)控制的"计划生育"政策。用种群生态学动态模拟的方法,运用大种群标准样本单元(标准总和生育率家庭)的子孙繁殖推演方式,首先构建中国1949-2049年的百年生育分析图。然后,在此基础上进行实际值拟合及远景分析。对采取"TFR=0"、"TFR=1"、"TFR=2"三种模式进行了比较严格的数理及生态学的图示分析。结果表明:"TFR=0"的策略属于人口控制的"自绝"模式;"TFR=1"的策略属于人口控制的"半自绝"模式或"减半萎缩模式";只有在人类种群"一夫一妻"基本制度下建立在接近总和生育率的"世纪更替"水平的"TFR=2.0"(或TFR=1+S/100)的策略属于人口控制的"零增长"或"近零增长"的可持续发展模式。

There is only country which carried on the policy of family planning is China. This article is studied the population dynamic changing in the structure with the methods of ecology. With the Total age-specific fertility rate （TAFR or TFR） population model we set up the bearing fig from 1949 to 2009 in China and on the basic of bearing relationship analysis in an standard or swatch family. To the ＂TFR=0＂, ＂TFR= 1＂, ＂TFR=2＂strategy of policy choices of family planning in China, only ＂keeping 2 children in one family ＂ or ＂TFR=2＂strategy is corrected and exactness. ＂TFR=0＂ strategy is the suicide of population conducted extinguish .If the ＂TFR=1＂ strategy keeping, the population number of China would be 2.70 million in 2189. Therefore, taking the ＂TFR=2＂strategy so that the zero increase could been promoted in China.