吉林省产业发展与经济周期波动关联性分析

Correlation Analysis of Industry Development and Economic Cycle Fluctuation in Jilin Province

本文选取吉林省1953—2011年为样本区间,对三次产业和经济周期波动之间的关联和影响动态进行分析。利用学术界普遍认同的"谷—谷"划分法划分为十轮经济周期,得出在经济繁荣时期,第二产业能够使经济更繁荣;经济萧条时期,第一产业加剧经济的进一步恶化,第三产业能够抑制经济的进一步衰退。进一步利用脉冲响应函数分析三次产业与经济周期波动的动态关系,结果表明第一、二、三产业对经济周期波动的影响在改革开放前后呈现出明显的不一致性。

This paper selects the date of Jilin province from 1953 to 2011 as the sample interval, analyses the correlation and influence between the three industries and dynamic economic cycle fluctuation. The academic gener- ally recognized ＂the Valley -valley＂ division into ten round of economic cycle, draw a conclusion that in a period of economic prosperity, the second industry to make the economy more prosperous;the economic depression lthe first industry increased further worsening economy, the third industry can restrain the economy into a downturn. Further by using the impulse response function analysis of the dynamic relationship between the three industries and eco- nomic fluctuations, the results show that the effect of the first, the two or three industry to the economic cycle fluctu- ations showed significant inconsistencies in the before and after the reform and opening - up.