我国城乡居民边际消费倾向的再估算

Re-estimating the Marginal Consumption Propensity of Chinese Urban and Rural Residents

收入分配是否影响居民消费需求以及产生何种影响，取决于边际消费倾向是否同收入水平相关。文章基于可变参数的状态空间模型，实证估计了我国城乡居民在1978—2012年间的边际消费倾向，估算结果显示：我国城乡居民边际消费倾向在1978～2012年间与收入水平间呈现“倒U”型变动关系；但相比而言，农村居民边际消费倾向要低于同期城镇居民。

Whether income distribution affected consumer demand and what the impact was depend on the relationship between the marginal consumption propensity and income level. This article, based on variable parameters of state space model, empirically estimated the marginal consumption propensity to of the urban and rural residents from 1978 to 2012 in China. Estimation results showed that the relationship between the marginal consumption propensity and income level showed an ＂inverted U＂ type from 1978 to 2012 in China. But in comparison, rural residents＂ marginal consumption prolaensitv is lower than that of urban residents within same period.