基于VAR模型的技术进步就业效应实证研究

An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model about the Employment Effects of Technological Progress

通过研究技术进步的就业总量及结构效应，就如何促进就业、保证各产业就业的协调发展提出有力的政策建议，为完善我国就业保障机制提供重要参考。本文利用1978—2010年的数据，采用隐性变量法对期间的技术进步率进行了估算，建立技术进步率与就业增长率的VAR模型，对两者进行脉冲响应分析，研究技术进步对就业总量增长的动态影响；利用Johansen最大似然法对各产业的比较劳动生产率和就业人数进行协整分析，研究技术进步与就业结构变化的关系。研究表明：短期内（1—3年）技术进步对就业变化的影响显著为负，但长期（4—8年）则显著为正；第一产业和第二产业的技术进步和就业量不存在长期稳定的关系，第三产业的技术进步促进了该产业就业量的增加。

By studying the effects of technological progress on total employment and employment structure, this paper puts forward strong policy recommendations for promoting employment and ensuring coordinated development of various industrial employment. Provide an important reference for the improvement of Employment Security Mechanism. For figuring out dynamic impact of technological progress on total employment growth, we use recessive variable method to estimate the technology progress rate from the year of 1978 - 2010, and establish VAR model between rate of technological progress and employment growth, and impulse response analysis for both. To research the relationship between technological progress and changes in the structure of employment, we use Johansen maximum likelihood method to make co- integration analysis between comparative labor productivity and employment in all industries. Studies have shown that, in the short term （ 1 - 3 years）, there is a significantly negative of technological progress on employment effects. But in the long run （4 - 8 years）, technical progress has significantly positive impact on employment, There is not a long-term stable relationship between the first and second industry employment and technical progress. However, the third industrial technology development promotes the employment of the industry.