美联储加速退出量化宽松货币政策的影响及对我国的启示

The Influence of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Accelerating Quit from the Quantitative Easing Policy and the Implications for China

受2013年6月美联储表态将逐步退出量化宽松货币政策的行为及其预期的影响,全球金融市场发生了剧烈地动荡,而美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的步伐却并未由此止步。这不仅会作用于美国的经济增长路径,同时也必将会使得以中国为代表的新兴市场经济体国家遭受美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的外溢性风险。文章就当前美联储退出QE预期及步伐加速的背景下,分析了美联储退出QE对全球经济的影响,以及从实体经济传导和金融市场传导层面探讨了对我国经济的影响,并认为美联储退出QE对我国而言既是一种挑战,也是一种机遇,并最终提出了以"保持稳定"为目标的防范美联储退出量化宽松货币政策溢出风险的对策建议。

June, 2013, the US Federal Reserve announced that the Quantitative Easing Policy （QE） will gradually quit. Influenced by thisbehavior and the expectations, global financial markets got violently turbulent. However, the quit pace of the QE has not thereby stopped yet.This behavior not only has an impact on the growth path of American economy, but also poses a spillover policy risk shock to emerging marketeconomies like China. This article analyzed the impact of the quit of the QE on the global economy, and discussed its impact on China＇s economyfrom the real economy transmission and financial markets transmission perspectives. The author argues that the quit of the QE could be both achallenge and an opportunity to China. At last, the article proposed some relevant suggestions around ＂ stability＂ to protect China from potentialrisks.