中国农民市民化与经济增长内在依从关系研究——基于非线性STR模型的实证分析

Research on intrinsic relationship between urbanization of farmers and economic growth in China ——empirical analysis based on nonlinear STR model

改革开放以来,中国农民市民化以一种不可逆转的形势迅猛发展,并为经济发展作出巨大贡献。研究基于1980—2010年时间序列数据,首先进行格兰杰因果关系检验,然后运用STR模型对其展开研究。结果表明,中国农民市民化与经济增长之间存在着单向的格兰杰因果关系,总体上存在着非线性关系。同时测算出在两个不同阶段(1980—1985年、1986—2010年)农民市民化对经济增长不同程度的贡献,随后得出结论以及给出相应的政策建议。

Since the reform and opening-up policy,the trend of farmers transferring to be city residents has developed rapidly in an irreversible situation in China,and has made great contribution to economic development.Based on the time series data from 1980 to 2010,this paper applies granger causality relationship test,and then applies STR model to research the relationship.The results show that it exists unidirectional granger causality relationship between urbanization of farmers and economic growth and nonlinear relationship on the whole.At the same time,it can measure the varying degrees contribution urbanization of farmers has created to economic development in two different stages(1980——1985,1986——2010),and then presents a corresponding conclusion and some advice.