中美林产品贸易的J曲线验证

The J Curve Verification of Sino-us Tradein Forest Products

基于ARDL—ECM模型，文章以1990-2011年的中美林产品贸易数据，从汇率水平和汇率波动水平两个维度实证考察人民币汇率变动对中美林产品贸易的影响。结果表明，人民币升值在短期和长期内均对中美林产品贸易平衡有负面影响，但并不存在明显的反J曲线效应，而汇率变动性风险的影响并不显著，这一研究结果值得政策制定部门对我国林产品贸易尤其是进口贸易的刚性需求重点关注，并慎重考虑林产品贸易战略的长远规划。

The fact that changes of exchange rate can affect a country＇s trade balance has become a general principle.Whether the RMB exchange rate can affect Sino-us trade in forest products in recent years, and whether there isthe J curve effect on Sino-us trade in forest products becomes the two basic problems of this paper. Based on AR-DL - ECM model, this paper study the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-us trade in forest products（from 1990-2011 ） from two dimensions of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility levels. The results show thatappreciation of the RMB in the short and long term both have negative effects on forest products trade balance between China and America, but there is no obvious jcurve effect, whereas the impact of the risk of exchange ratevolatility is not significant. Policy formulation department of China＇ s forest products trade should focus on the results and consider carefully the long-term planning of forest products trade strategy.