我国上市公司运营危机与生命周期分析

Research on Operating Crisis and Life Cycle of China's Listed Companies

文章研究了1998年至2011年我国上市公司出现的运营危机,从总体状况、行业分布、地区分布、规模分布和时间跨度方面系统梳理了我国上市公司运营危机的统计特征。在研究过程中,利用经验概率的测算方法,首次提出股市投资的行业风险率、地区风险率、注册资本风险率、上市时间风险率的指标及计算方法,在此基础上绘制了我国上市公司的生命周期曲线。

This article analyzes the operating crisis of the listed companies in China based on the data between 1998 and 2011. This study systematically demonstrates the statistical features of listed companies＇ operating crisis from the aspects of general situation, industry distribution, regional distribution, size distribution and time span. In the research process, this article first puts forward the definition and calculation methods of stock market investment＇s risk on business, risk on location, risk on capital and risk on time by referring to the calculation method of experience probability, and then maps out the life cycle curves of the listed companies.