电网基础设施突发事件应急能力指标体系构建及评价

On the evaluation of the emergency response capability of the power grid infrastructure facing the unexpected accidents

为了提高电网设施在自然灾害和人为破坏等突发事件下的灾害应对能力,结合电力系统应急管理行业特点,从预防、准备、响应和恢复4个阶段构建了电网基础设施突发事件应急能力评价指标体系,共3个层次,包括4个一级指标、14个二级指标及30个三级指标,利用层次分析法确定了各级指标权重。并以某变电站为例,利用上述指标体系进行定量评价,借鉴国外标准,将应急能力划分为优秀、良好、一般和差4个等级,基于多级模糊综合评判法,得出其应急能力等级属于"良好",基本符合实际状况。

The paper is aimed to propose an evaluation index system of the emergency response competence of our power system on how to enhance the infrastructure of the power supply while taking into account the particular features of the power industry and the emergency management process （it can be divided into four stages, that is, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery）. It is just for the said purpose that we have developed an index system of three levels, including four top-rank indexes, the fourteen second-rank indexes and thirty third-rank indicators while studying the analytic hierarchical process for evaluating the weight of each index. In doing so, we have also worked out the evaluation matrixes by way of one-to-one comparison of the indicators from the basic ranks in correspondence with the indicators of the higher levels, with the elements of the matrix given according to the 1-9 scale number of Satty. To make our evaluation system more realistic and valuable for practical applications, we have invited about 100 experts to accomplish and enhance the evaluation matrix, including the management and the technical force from the electric power grid companies and enterprises, the administrative and managerial stuff members from the corresponding departments and research institutions engaged in emergency and disaster prevention. Through consistent investigation and level arrangement in an order, we have determined the weight of each indicator. And, finally, we have chosen and made a power-transformation substation in Guangdong as our case study sample to apply the index system established above by using a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Referring to the foreign evaluation standard, we have divided the emergency response capability into four grades, that is, excellent, good, moderate and weak. The experts mentioned above were invited to conduct an assessment and mark the performance grade on every indicator, with the fuzzy comprehensive judgment matrix being set up. Through a series of calculation, the emergency response capability of the substation proves to be assessed as effective and valuable, which is well in accord with the objective needs basically. In addition, the evaluation index system can be taken as a valuable one that is qualified to provide a scientific basis to promote the emergency response work, an effective way to strengthen the capability construction of infrastructures in the prevention from and with the disastrous emergencies.