高含硫井场应急广播系统通知效能评估方法

Evaluation method for notification effectiveness of the emergency broadcast system at the high sulfur mining sites

依据事故的健康后果和实时系统的时间限,评估应急广播报警通知策略。将研究区域分为若干子区域,从实时系统的时间限和目标区域的死亡概率两个角度分析分区报警的通知效能,建立了能效评估的Deadline模型和概率模型。为简化运算,结合改进的Q型聚类方法对同一子区域内的居民进行分组,使同组居民共享相同的报警通知;然后引入贪心算法,建立目标区域居民分区、分组的指标体系,对概率模型求解,根据概率函数估计人员的健康后果,评估广播报警通知策略的有效性。最后以四川某气田P303井场为例,采用概率模型对该区域通知策略进行优化,获得贪心策略下的最优通知顺序。研究表明,应急广播通知策略的评估与优化对应急预案的编制有重要意义。

The present article is dedicated to finding a proper assessment method and emergency broadcast notification policy based on the health consequence of accidents and Deadline of the real-time system. As is known, it is often the case that adverse effects are more likely to be brought about not only because of the seriousness of threatening the normal life of the local people, but also due to the damages that are likely to be brought about to the local environment. It is just for this reason that it is of urgent need to reduce the casualty and property loss likely to be caused by the accidents like toxic gas leakage, building fire, debris-sprinkling disasters, mountain landslide and so on. In so doing, the first step is to predict the likely approaches to mitigating such adverse effects so as for the local people to avoid or at least partly or entirely get rid of the ensuing extreme consequences. For this purpose, an emergency broadcast alarming notification policy and corresponding optimization measures should be taken into consideration in hoping to improve the hardware and software of the notification systems, and relieve the local people of the unexpected losses in the final analysis. In so doing, this paper would like to introduce a renovated regional management and packet transmission for alarming notification tasks in an area being troubled. It is recommended to divide area under the problem into sub-regions with different shapes and sizes, and, in turn, to adopt the so-called probability model and Deadline model based on the analysis of factors affecting the alarm notification based on the health consequences of the accident and deadline of notification tasks in an urgent case like a gas leakage. To simplify the accounting job further, this paper has introduced the greedy algorithm for finding the optimal solution to the probability model. Taking an emergency project in a gas field in Sichuan as a case study sample, we have applied the probability model and its optimized algorithm to the practice of preparing an optimal notification policy for the surrounding area of P303 well site, and has consequently obtained the optimal notification order under the greedy strategy proposed in this paper.