基于系统动力学的供应链牛鞭效应仿真研究

Study on Simulation of Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect Based on System Dynamics

从供应链各主体的库存能力和实时订货量入手,借助系统动力学理论,对订货提前期进行了初步探究,进一步阐述了牛鞭效应的产生原因,并对它们之间的相互关系进行了研究。为了降低牛鞭效应,采用了缩短提前期的手段,并应用Anylogic仿真软件验证了该方法的有效性。

In this paper, starting from the inventory capacity and real-time ordering volume of the various agents of the supply chain and using the theory of system dynamics, we studied preliminarily the ordering lead time of the supply chain, further explained the cause of the bullwhip effect and explored the relationship between the two. At the end, we proposed the measures to reduce the lead time in order to alleviate the bullwhip effect and demonstrated the effectiveness of the method.