我国物流业发展水平与碳排放内生性研究——基于协整和脉冲响应函数的视角

Study on Endogeneity of Logistics Industry Development Level and Carbon Emissions in China: A Perspective Based on Co-integration Analysis and Pulse Response Function

基于协整和脉冲响应函数,考察了我国1990-2012年碳排放量与物流业发展水平之间的长期均衡及动态演进关系。由协整方程得出我国物流业发展水平每提升(下降)1%将引起CO2排放增加(减少)0.573%;由脉冲响应函数构建的动态关系表明,物流业的快速发展导致了能源消耗的增长,从而引起碳排放量上升,而碳排放量的增加也抑制了物流业的发展,且其影响存在一定的滞后期。

In this paper, on the basis of the co-integration analysis and the pulse response function, we observed the long-term equilibrium and dynamic evolution between the carbon emissions and logistics industry development level in China between the years 1990 and 2012 and found that the rapid development of the logistics industry led to greater energy consumption and further to the increase in carbon emissions while the increase in carbon emissions also restricted the development of the logistics industry, the effect of which would only manifest after a certain interval.