鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的半定量风险评估

Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment of Yersinia enterocolitica in Fresh Meat

目的:分析南京市售鲜肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度。方法:将国内外文献报道及市场调查数据的统计分析相结合,运用经典的半定量风险评估软件"Risk Ranger"进行风险分级。结果:南京市售猪肉和牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险评分分别为31和24,每人每天因食用污染该菌的鲜肉造成食物中毒的概率分别为3.62×10-9,3.12×10-10,前者为后者风险的11.6倍。通过进一步研究发现,加工后采取有效的控制体系,均使两者的风险均降低到10%。结论:南京市售牛肉中小肠结肠炎耶尔森菌的风险程度较低,而市售猪肉中已接近中等程度,需做好预防措施,加强监管。

To analyze the risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh meat in Nanjing. Methods： Risk rating was based on the classic semi-quantitative risk assessment software Risk Ranger combined with literature reports and market research data. Results：Relative risk from Yersinia enterocolitica in commercial fresh pork and beef in Nanjing was 31 and 24, respectively. The probability of food poisoning per day per consumer of interest was 3.62×10^-9 and 3.12×10^-10, respectively. Risk from the former showed an 11.6-fold increase over that from the latter. In further study, we found that the risks from the two kinds of commercial fresh meat could be reduced to one tenth of the original value by using control systems after processing. Conclusions：The risk of Yersinia enterocolitica contamination in commercial fresh beef in Nanjing is relatively low, but the risk in commercial fresh pork is near the moderate hazard. Consequently, the supervision and management of commercial fresh meat should be strengthened.