摘要
To address the defi ciency of climatological research on tropical cyclones （TCs） infl uencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with diff erent intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50-and 100-yr return-period TCs with diff erent intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with diff erent intensities exert distinctive eff ects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these diff erent regions also diff er. Super and severe typhoons mainly infl uence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities infl uence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity （PMTI） with 50- and 100-yr return periods infl uencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa;the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over diff erent regions of China.
To address the defi ciency of climatological research on tropical cyclones （TCs） infl uencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with diff erent intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50-and 100-yr return-period TCs with diff erent intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with diff erent intensities exert distinctive eff ects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these diff erent regions also diff er. Super and severe typhoons mainly infl uence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities infl uence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity （PMTI） with 50- and 100-yr return periods infl uencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa;the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over diff erent regions of China.
基金
Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106)
Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(11&zd167)
