NIM及其变动趋势与中国银行业盈利水平

NIM, Its Trends and the Profitability of Chinese Banking Sector

中国商业银行NIM与1年期存贷款基准利率差之间存在显著的正相关关系,未来随着中国利率市场化的全面实现,银行NIM可能面临巨大的下行压力。本文的实证研究显示,中国银行业保持净利润增长所需保持的NIM水平受GDP增速和银行不良贷款率变化的影响尤为显著,未来中国商业银行将面临GDP增速下滑和银行不良贷款率的上升趋势,要求必须保持一定的NIM水平才能实现盈利持续增长。面对严峻的外部挑战,中国银行业需要将更有效的利差管理与经营转型、风险控制紧密结合,积极创新求变,顺应外部经营环境变化的趋势与要求。

There is a significant and positive correlation between the benchmark interest rate of one-year＇s deposit-loan and the NIM of Chinese commercial banks. In the future, interest rate will be fully liberalized in China and the NIM may decline greatly. The empirical research in this paper shows that the NIM level to maintain the net-profit growth of Chinese commercial banks is significantly impacted by the GDP growth and the changes in non-performing-loan rate. Chinese commercial banks will face a declining GDP growth and a rising non-performing-loan rate, so they need enough NIM to maintain sustainable profit growth. Because of the severe challenges, Chinese commercial banks should combine more effective spread management with operational transformation and risk control, innovate business and follow the trends in external environment and requirements.