南通市通州区2001-2012年艾滋病流行特征分析及趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics analysis and trend prediction of HIV /AIDS in Tongzhou district of Nantong City during 2001- 2012

目的了解南通市通州区艾滋病流行特征，预测发病趋势，为制订防治策略提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2001-2012年南通市通州区艾滋病疫情数据进行分析，并运用灰色系统C-M（1，1）模型进行预测。结果2001-2012年南通市通州区累计报告HIV／AIDS123例，疫情呈逐年上升趋势。男女性别比为4．35：1，20-49岁青壮年占70．73％；职业以农民和民工为主，占65．85％；主要传播途径为性接触传播，占93．49％。灰色系统Gkl（1，1）模型预测2013-2014年HIV／AIDS报告病例数分别为65例和89例。结论应切实加强宣传教育，做好行为干预，努力遏制艾滋病疫情。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Tongzhou, and predict the prevention trend, providing scientific evidence for formulating prevention and control strategy. Methods The descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the reported HIV/AIDS data from 2001 to 2012 in Tongzhou, and the prevalence trend was predicted with GM （ 1, 1 ） Grey model. Results Totally, 123 HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Tongzhou from 2001 to 2012. The annual incidence rate increased obviously year by year. The gender ratio of male to female was 4. 35 to 1, the ratio of the cases aged from 20 to 49 was 70. 73%; Occupation distribution indicated that most patients were farmers and migrant laborers, which accounted for 65.85% ; Sexual contact was the major route to transmit HIV/AIDS, the ratio was 93.49%. The HIV/AIDS cases from 2013 to 2014 was predicted with GM （ 1, 1 ） Grey model to be 65 and 89. Conclusions Should strengthen publicity and education practically, and do the good behavioral intervention, to restraint the continuously increasing trend of the incidence of HIV/AIDS.