摘要
本文利用1970—1992年山东及邻区11次震群资料,对其单项及综合指标作了计算和研究,据《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》判断其前兆性。同时对前兆震群与未来强震距离、间隔时间作了统计,并对其预报的成功率、虚报率、漏报率进行了贝叶斯估计。
By using the precursory data of eleven earthquake clusters in Shandong Province and its neighboring area from 1970 to 1992, this paper calculated and studied the single and comprehensive indexes as well as judged the precursory property according to 'The Guide to Earthquake Prediction Methods '. Then the interval between the precursory clusters and the strong earthquake in the future was statistically studied. And the rate of successful prediction, failure to predict and false alarm was estimated by using the Bayesian method.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第2期182-186,共5页
Earthquake
关键词
地震群
综合判断
预报效能评估
地震前兆
Seismic swarm, Synthetical judgement, Evaluation of prediction ability,Precursory cluster, Bayesian method
