世界经济学家调查报告显示:世界经济学家信心指数下滑

World Economic Survey Ifo World Economic Climate Deteriorates

由德国IFO研究所最新完成的世界经济学家调查显示，2014年二季度世界经济学家信心指数小幅下降。经济学家对当前经济形势的评估仍表示满意，对未来半年经济的预期略有下滑，但总体依旧向好。2014年二季度世界经济学家信心指数回落至102.3，仍远高于其历史平均水平（1998—2013年平均值为955）。世界经济仍保持上升态势，但增长动能减弱。世界经济呈现地区差异2014年前几个月，工业生产增长强劲，增长的主要推动力源自去年以来经济恢复动能的发达国家。美国和英国的经济正处于上升通道，欧元区的经济也从衰退中缓慢复苏。与之相反，自2013年下半年以来，许多新兴经济体国家都面临着资金外流与货币贬值的考验、、发达国家的货币政策依旧宽松，基准利率维持在0％或略高。调查结果显示，世界经济学家信心指数总体保持稳定，但地区间差别各异：欧洲和北美各国经济继续上升．而亚洲和拉美地区新兴经济体的增长步伐放缓。此外，乌克兰危机成为目前世界经济发展的一个主要威胁。

The Ifo Index for the world economy fell slightly in the second quarter. Assessments of the current economic situation remain satisfactory. The six-month economic outlook clouded over slightly, but remains friendly overall. At 102.3, the indicator still stands well above its long-term average of 95.5 （1998-2013）. WES experts ex- pect world economic growth of 2.5 percent this year. The world economy continues to follow an upward trend, but is showing little momentum. Uneven recovery across regions. World production grew strongly in the first few months of 2014. The impetus particularly came from advanced economies, which have gained momentum over the course of the past year. The USA and United Kingdom are expe- riencing an uPturn and the economy in the euro area is slowly recov- ering from recession. A number of emerging economies, however, have been battling with capital outflows and currency depreciations since mid-2013. Monetary policy in the advanced economies remains expansive, with base rates at zero percent or just above. The stabilisation of the world economic climate masks differing trends： while the countries of Europe and North America in particular have found their feet again, the pace of growth in the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America seems to be slowing down. The crisis in the Ukraine is one of the main threats to the world economy.