人民币汇率水平变化、汇率波动幅度对进口贸易的影响——基于省际面板数据的研究

Impact of Exchange Rate Change and Fluctuation Range on Import Trade:A Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文基于全国31个省级行政区域从各主要贸易国家或地区进口金额的季度数据,自行编制了省际实际有效汇率指数,首次研究了2005年7月汇改以来人民币省际实际有效汇率变动对各省进口贸易的影响。主要结论如下:从全国层面来看,省际实际有效汇率对当期进口贸易存在负向影响,而滞后一期的汇率升值对进口贸易具有一定的促进效应。从东、中、西三个区域来看,省际实际有效汇率的变化对东部地区进口贸易影响最大、西部地区其次、中部地区最弱。此外,本文运用面板门限模型,分析了汇率波动幅度对进口贸易的影响。

Most domestic literature regarding the impact of exchange rate movements on inter-provincial export trade used time series data as indicators of the rate. This study shows that the major trading partners of different provinces in China vary significantly. Based on quarterly import data of China＇ s 31 admin- istrative regions at provincial level from their major countries or regions, this pa- per analyzes the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on provincial import trades. The study finds that, from a national perspective, the provincial real effective exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on cur- rent imports, but the lagged exchange rate appreciation has a promoting effect on import trades; from a regional perspective, the provincial real effective exchange rate changes have a huge influence on import trades in eastern regions, followed by a smaller influence in western regions and no obvious influence in the central regions. Finally, this paper uses panel threshold model to explore the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on import trades, coming to a conclusion that when ex- change rate fluctuations are within 2.531 units, 1 unit of real effective exchange rate appreciation results in a 0.192-unit increase in imports, and when the fluctua- tions are greater than 2.531 units, 1 unit of real effective exchange rate apprecia- tion corresponds to a 0.1 10-unit increase in imports.