中国进出口商品结构变化及其对中美贸易条件的影响

Structural Change of China's Export and Import Commodity and Its Effects on Terms of Trade between China and the United States

对中国在1992-2012年的进出口商品的海关统计数据从需求角度重新分类计算,发现出口商品中的投资品比例不断上升,进口商品中投资品的比例长期保持在90%以上。这种投资型进出口商品结构体现出贸易战略的产业发展目标,即通过对外贸易实现产业转换,最终建立完备的工业化体系。将进出口商品的结构特征参数纳入贸易条件模型,利用同时期中美价格指数和人民币兑美元的名义汇率,计算中美贸易条件的时间序列数据。计算结果显示,以产业全面发展为目标的贸易转换战略,付出了贸易条件长时期恶化的代价。

When the customs statistic data of China＇ s exports and imports from 1992 to 2012 have been recalculated according to the classification of de, mand, it is obvious that the ratio of investment commodity in exports has been increasing, and the ratio of investment commodity in imports has been kept above 90%. Such an investment-oriented structure of trade reflects the strategic goal of industrial development which is to establish a complete and sophisticated industrial system by the trade strategy for industrial conversion. Putting the param- eters of trade structure into the model of terms of trade calculation, and using price indices of the U.S. and China as well as nominal exchange rate of RMB against U.S. dollar, to calculate the time series data of terms of trade between China and the U.S., the result demonstrates that the strategy of industrial conver- sion by trade for the comprehensive development of industries deteriorates terms of trade in the long run.