金融发展、外部融资约束与出口平稳发展——基于贸易联系持续期视角的实证研究

Financial Development, External Financing Constraints and China's Export Growth: An Empirical Study Based on Duration of Trade Relations

本文基于1997-2011年HS-6位数产品出口数据,利用生存分析方法研究外部融资约束对我国出口贸易联系持续期的影响及其行业差异。统计分析显示,我国出口贸易联系持续期的中值仅为2年。实证结果表明:金融发展、外部融资约束降低对我国出口平稳发展具有积极作用;将28个样本行业分为高、低外部融资依赖两组,分析显示融资条件改善对于低外部融资依赖行业出口的平稳发展具有更大的促进作用,这一结果是我国金融体系中存在制度性偏向的直接反映。在此基础上,本文提出了改善外部融资条件、促进我国出口贸易平稳发展的相关政策建议。

Based on HS 6-digit level export data from 1997 to 2011 and sur- vival analysis techniques, this paper studies the impact of external financing con- straints on China＇ s export duration and industry differences. Statistical analysis illustrates that China＇ s export duration is relatively short, with a median of 2 years. Further analysis indicates that financial development and reducing financing constraints play a significantly positive role on the stable development of China＇ s export. Furthermore, industries with lower external financing dependence bene- fits more from financing constraints reduction, reflecting the bias of fund supply in China＇ s financial system. On this basis, this paper proposes policy recommen- dations of reducing financing constraints and promoting the stead development of China＇ s export.