“失去的20年”与“安倍经济学”增长战略

The“Lost Two Decades”of Japan and Growth Strategy of Abenomics

日本经济"失去的20年"固然与需求不足有关,但更多是由供给方面新陈代谢功能受阻、全要素生产率增幅放缓等问题所造成的。而其微观根源是日本传统的经济体系出现了严重的制度疲劳:金融结构老化,难以支持新产业发展;企业制度僵化,适应环境困难;政治失灵,管制过多。这一切阻碍了新陈代谢和资源有效配置,降低了日本经济的活力。安倍经济学的增长战略不仅如多数学者所指出的那样缺乏力度,更主要的问题是战略本身忽略了触动及推进金融机构和企业加快自身制度改革这一重要内容。根本而言,日本经济还是要靠民间主体的自我革新来重建活力。

The'lost two decades'of Japan is related to the poor performance on the supply side ratherthan demand deficiency. Especially, it is caused by the economy's lack of vitality and theslowdown in total factor productivity growth. At the micro level, it is because of the serioussystem fatigue of Japan's traditional economic regime: aging financial structure that cannotmatch with new industries, rigid corporate system that makes it difficult for Japaneseenterprises to adjust to changing business environment, and dysfunctional political system thatfeatures excessive regulation. Those factors have affected the vitality of the economy andobstructed effective allocation of resources. As pointed out by many scholars, the growthstrategy of Abenomics lacks strength and cannot reverse the tide. More importantly, theessential defect of the growth strategy of Abenomics is its failure to force financial institutionsand enterprises to accelerate their systematic reform. Self-motivated reform of the privatesector is the essential way to revitalize the Japanese economy.