摘要
论文在对价格传递的特征进行了新的刻画基础上,利用我国近15年的月度数据,采用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的计量方法,对比研究了农产品和工业品价格传递的动态路径特征及其对我国物价水平波动的影响。研究结论表明:从对价格冲击调整的方向、大小和快慢上来看,农产品产业链价格传递的波动性更大、影响时滞更短,呈现出更明显的非对称性特征,更容易影响我国物价波动;而工业品产业链价格传递不那么顺畅,特别是中游价格PPI与物价波动常呈现脱节现象。为此,在制定稳定物价的政策时,应针对两者价格传递的不同特征进行区别对待。
On the basis of redefining the characteristics of the price transmission, we have a contrastive analysis of the agricultural and industrial chains dynamic path characteristics in the price transmission and influences on China＇s price fluctuations, by using VAR model and impulse response function measurement method, through monthly data in the past 15 years. The results show thatas far as Price shocks to the adjustment of the direction, size and speed, the price trans- mission of the agricultural chain has more fluctuations, more shorter lags and more asymmetric characteristics, so it affects the price fluctuation more often; While the price transmission of the industrial chain has more obvious lag effect, especially in the middle price of PPI and price fluctuations often appear disjointed phenomenon. So policy making, should according to different charac-teristics of that two price transmission process.
出处
《科学决策》
CSSCI
2014年第6期14-27,共14页
Scientific Decision Making
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(编号:11CMZ006)
关键词
价格传递
动态路径
VAR模型
脉冲响应函数
物价波动
price transmission
dynamic path
VAR model
impulse response function
price fluc-tuations
